US

New York is bracing itself for chaos after Donald Trump claimed he will soon be arrested there.

It comes after a grand jury investigating the former president’s business affairs invited him to testify – often a sign an indictment is close.

The Manhattan criminal case centres around alleged ‘hush’ money sent to former adult film star Stormy Daniels after she said they had an affair.

As well as the New York case, Mr Trump also faces probes in Florida, Georgia and over the insurrection in Washington DC.

Stormy Daniels (criminal)

Ms Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, claims she had an affair with Mr Trump in 2006, which the former US president denies.

In 2016 when he was running for president, she offered to sell her story to the press.

Mr Trump’s then-lawyer Michael Cohen was notified of her plans, resulting in a $130,000 (£105,000) payment being made to keep Ms Daniels quiet.

Once he was elected, Mr Trump reimbursed Mr Cohen by paying him more than double the original amount. He continued to deny the affair, however.

New York investigators have been looking into the former president’s finances for years – originally led by former District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr.

But when he was replaced with Alvin Bragg in 2022, Mr Bragg decided to drop the grand jury investigation into claims the Trump empire fraudulently inflated its real estate value.

Instead he decided to focus on the silence money case last summer, impanelling a grand jury (one assembled in secret to determine whether there’s enough evidence to prosecute) in January.

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Soon after Mr Cohen, who was jailed on several counts in 2018, was summoned by prosecutors.

According to court documents, Mr Trump falsely listed his former lawyer’s reimbursement as “legal services”.

If the grand jury is persuaded, this could result in an accounting fraud charge.

They could also decide to indict him on campaign fraud charges – as silencing Ms Daniels’s claims could have helped propel him to power.

The former president has claimed he is likely to be arrested, but no indictment has been issued.

He describes the investigation as a politically motivated “witch hunt”.

The grand jury will reconvene next week, while New York authorities prepare for unrest after Mr Trump urged his supporters to protest there.

Trump Organization fraud (civil)

In a separate case the New York attorney general Letitia James is pursuing a civil lawsuit against the Trump Organization for overvaluing its real estate assets by billions.

Lodged last September, Ms James alleges members of the Trump group lied to lenders about the group’s net worth to get bigger loans.

Documents see her accuse Mr Trump, his sons Donald Jr, Eric, and daughter Ivanka of “astounding” fraud.

She is also seeking $250m (£226m) she claims the Trumps obtained fraudulently.

The case is set to go to court in October, and while it is not a criminal case at this stage, Ms James has referred it to the district attorney as such.

The lawsuit could however ban Mr Trump and his children from owning real estate in New York for five years – or being business directors or officers there.

Classified documents (criminal)

The US Justice Department (DoJ) launched a criminal investigation into Mr Trump after he was found to have removed classified documents from the White House when he left in 2021.

It is being led by special counsel Jack Smith – an independent lawyer hired by the DoJ.

According to court documents, Mr Trump resisted federal government efforts to retrieve official paperwork for more than a year.

This could open him up to separate allegations of obstructing justice.

In August the FBI obtained a court warrant to raid his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida, where they found 11,000 documents – more than 100 of which were marked as classified.

Mr Trump has claimed he “declassified” some of the documents, although there is no evidence for this.

He also says some of them were subject to privilege, which stops them being used in legal proceedings.

Mr Smith’s investigation is ongoing.

Georgia election result (criminal)

Mr Trump disputed the results in several states after he lost the 2020 presidential election, including Georgia where the close margin triggered a run-off.

Ahead of the Democratic victory on 5 January 2021, a phone call between Mr Trump and Republican secretary of state Brad Raffensperger was leaked to the media.

In it, Mr Trump told Mr Raffensperger to “find 11,780 votes”.

This sparked a 26-member grand jury investigation into electoral fraud, racketeering and making false statements to government officials – led by Fani Willis, top prosecutor for Georgia’s Fulton County.

They spent eight months interrogating more than 70 witnesses and filed a lengthy report earlier this year.

It is not clear whether Mr Trump would be indicted as around 20 of his allies have also been named as potential targets of the probe.

The report is being kept secret, but Ms Willis will decide whether to prosecute later this year.

Mr Trump rejects the investigation, calling Ms Willis a “young, ambitious, Radical Left Democrat… who is presiding over one of the most Crime Ridden and Corrupt places”.

January 6 riots (criminal and civil)

In December, a congressional committee filed an 845-page report on the insurrection at the White House on 6 January 2021.

They concluded that Mr Trump and his allies had a “multipart plan to overturn the 2020 presidential election”, including the attack on the Capitol.

It recommended Mr Trump be indicted on four criminal charges – but this is largely symbolic as only the DoJ can do so.

Separately, DoJ special counsel Jack Smith is still carrying out a criminal investigation into the Capitol assault.

While Mr Trump could be charged – he hasn’t been called for questioning yet – it is not clear what the exact focus is. But hundreds of people involved on the day have already been indicted or jailed.

Two congressmen have pursued civil lawsuits for inciting the riots on 6 January.

The first – by Mississippi Democrat Bernie Thompson – was dropped while the House committee gained momentum. But the second – by California Democrat Eric Swalwell – is ongoing.

Mr Trump has continued to claim widescale voter fraud took place.

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